EXCLUSIVE: Where's Wales going after Rhodri?

Monday, November 30, 2009

Carwyn Jones has won the election to be Welsh Labour leader and First Minister in the Welsh Assembly. But it's unlikely he will be as popular in a decade's time as Rhodri Morgan is today, writes Richard Wyn Jones

'All political careers end in failure' is perhaps the least controversial statement associated with Enoch Powell. But even a brief consideration of recent UK Prime Ministers – Thatcher, Major, Blair and, dare I say it, Brown – confirms that in this, at least, Powell was correct.

But if so, the career of Welsh First Minister Rhodri Morgan may well be the exception that proves the rule. As he prepares to hand over the reigns to a new Welsh Labour leader and new First Minister, Morgan would be less than human if he were not to take great pride in the strikingly high approval ratings he enjoyed in a recent YouGov poll.

Such ratings would be striking enough if Rhodri (as he is almost universally known in Wales) were still enjoying his political honeymoon. But given that he has held the First Ministership for almost a decade, they are nothing short of remarkable. Morgan seems to have transcended mere politics to become a national institution. To remind ourselves that he has managed this as a leader of a National Assembly whose establishment was approved by only the narrowest margins in the 1997 referendum, and following on from Alun Michael's nigh-on disastrous term as Assembly and Welsh Labour leader, is simply to underline the scale of Morgan's achievement. In his case at least, the normal laws of political gravity do not seem to apply.

It is worth dwelling on Rhodri Morgan's popularity, not only because it is deserving of attention in its own right, but also to highlight the extent of the challenge facing his successor. Quite simply, how does anyone follow that? Undeterred, however, three candidates have criss-crossed Wales for the past few weeks attempting to drum up support in the various constituent sections of Labour's complicated electoral college.

The new leader Carwyn Jones, assembly member for Bridgend and current Counsel General, had been the bookies' favourite from the outset. But he had to contend with strong campaigns on behalf of two rivals. Edwina Hart, AM for Gower and Welsh minister, has a no nonsense reputation for getting things done, even if that means putting a few noses out of joint. The 'outsider' candidate was Huw Lewis, AM for Merthyr, who belied an earlier reputation as something of a New Labourite (never an asset in the Welsh context) to re-emerge as a radical social reformer.

Viewed from the outside, perhaps the most remarkable aspect of the contest is how little separates the candidates. In terms of personality, like Morgan, all three are patently signed-up members of the human race, no pretentions or assumed superiority here. This has always been an important trait in the ultra-demotic arena of Welsh politics, but is now absolutely vital in an era in which politicians tend to be held in such low esteem.

Ideologically they are all self-conscious inheritors of the much-vaunted Welsh radical tradition; keen, therefore, to distance themselves from Westminster Labour's fetishisation of market-based solutions. All are committed to the public services and the public service ethos. All also acknowledge the need to rebuild Welsh Labour, a country where the party has lost more ground since 1997 than in either England or Scotland, this despite Rhodri Morgan's popularity. None, however, is able to admit that they will almost certainly be attempting to do so with Cameron's Conservatives in power at the UK level. Notwithstanding their respective commitments to straight talking, some highly probable realities appear too painful for the candidates to contemplate.

Differences between them are differences of degree rather than differences in kind. While Carwyn Jones's campaign has sought to counter the perception in some quarters that their man is policy-lite by releasing policy positions at an almost frenetic rate, he is probably the nearest thing to a continuity candidate. Like Morgan, his natural inclination is to seek consensus. The partnership-style approach – or, more pejoratively, the 'Welsh group hug' – so characteristic of the first decade of devolution is likely to continue. Whether this will suffice in a period in which the Welsh Assembly government is likely to face very severe public spending constraints remains to be seen.

An Edwina Hart First Ministership was perhaps the most intriguing prospect. As health minister she has wielded executive powers with a vigour unusual in any UK government department, let alone at the devolved level. While this has clearly led to resentment among some of those who work for her, Hart's 'can do, will do' attitude has also inspired great loyalty among many of those who work with her. Of the three candidates, Hart is probably the most comfortable with the current coalition agreement with Plaid Cymru. That said, it is at present hard to foresee any realistic alternative, whatever the candidates might prefer.

Huw Lewis made it clear that he would make combating Wales's shocking child poverty statistics the central focus of his premiership. Interestingly, this focus has in the past led him to express intense frustration with failures in policy delivery. As a result, one perhaps unexpected result of a Lewis-led government would have been a more directive and even, ultimately, confrontational attitude towards local government than we have seen in the past. On this view, the 'group hug' might have become stifling. Indeed, given that Lewis's strong campaign has surely been enough to secure for him an influential role in the next Welsh government, it may be that his agenda will become more influential.

So Carwyn Jones has emerged victorious from the leadership election. But we may be certain of one thing: he is very unlikely to be as popular in a decade's time as Rhodri Morgan is today as he completes a remarkable reign as Wales First Minister. For all of us in Wales, things won't quite be the same after Rhodri.

Richard Wyn Jones is director of the Wales Governance Centre, Cardiff University